I'll leave this thread up for anyone who wants to make a point of their own or talk about anything in general, questions, suggestions, etc.
Note for commenting, you do not have to put a URL in to post under a name/handle, just leave it blank and hit continue. That's can be a little confusing. There is no password or registration.
UT-Arlington's leading scorer is averaging 8.7ppg, and their team is 353rd in offensive eff. What I'm looking for today is for ECU to shut them down. The ECU Offense has far exceeded I think almost anyone's expectations but the defense still has a lot of room to improve and will need to step it up when some of these shooting numbers regress. ECU even has one of UTA's coaches that was on staff last year and knows the coach wants to do and some of the personnel.
ReplyDeleteSpread is only ECU-4.5 which to me is somewhat low the way we have been playing. But it is the 3rd game in 3 days. Tempted to throw some cash down on the pirates.
DeleteThis is the kind of game I expect to win by 10, but that always seems to be a WTF upset over the years just when things start going well. What would give me pause is UTA did just beat a pretty solid N. Kentucky yesterday who beat Cincy. They also don't play anyone a lot of minutes so they should be more rested on the 3rd day of games.
ReplyDeleteIn the preseason I thought N. Kentucky was probably who ECU would play in the 3rd game (predicted a loss), and was pretty impressed with their team. UTA's offense has been terrible though, even including the two non D1 games they scored 100 and 103 in, it's 306th. Even if ECU goes cold today this is the kind of game you got to defend well.
You need to change of this site to “Still a Dumbass”
ReplyDeleteOry
ReplyDeletewhat is the range of scores lo to hi for the PER score. sometimes when I see a PER number I can't put it in context, I have seen the PER equation
PER is a per-possession comparison stat. 15.0 is where they set the adjusted average overall for college basketball. Anyone at ECU getting a 15 PER is pretty solid IMO. Suggs for example was around 15.0 every year here. 20.0+ is all-conference / star-level range. (Small is currently at 25.4). Less than 8 you don't want to see them playing very often ideally if you are this far in the season. The highest ever scores since it started around 2010 in college basketball is around 40 (Zion Williamson 40.8). Zach Edey likely will challenge it this year. Those are all-time efficiency seasons.
DeleteOry, I have been wondering where you have gotten to and am happy to see that you are still around and still doing your statistical analysis. I just found your site today with the assistance of Igoe. I usually find your comments to be interesting and relevant and am looking forward to visiting your site fairly regularly.
ReplyDeleteWelcome, you probably should read the earlier post games. Showing up after SC State wasn't the best timing. I actually liked what I had seen from the on the court product and coaching up until that point and tried to give it a fair shake. Like they say in Shawshank, hope's a dangerous thing. That soul crushing loss had me rethinking the blog.
DeleteThe SCSTgame was a perfect storm in that it was a combination of our getting out front early getting too comfortable and then they resurged and gained some confidence. I thought at times they were actually playing harder than us but the we made a good run to cut it to 2 but they hit the foul shots. The team stats were close mainly because of Ausar but we had four guys in double figures. If they had played close to their averages from 3-pt and the floor as well as the foul line we would have won the game. They were shooting 26% from 3 and 51% from the line and averaging 31 fouls a game. In our game they shot 47% ---9 of 19 from 3 and that was mostly one guy. The guy who sealed it for them was a 40% foul shooter and they only had 8 fouls for the entire game which also hurt us because we have been pretty productive from the line. I am not excusing the loss and Coach Schwartz said he told them that we didn't it want as bad as SC and we didn't play as hard as them. I, too, thought we were being out hustled in some stretches. If they come out like that against Campbell they will lose again and I have no idea how good or bad Campbell is. This 12 man rotation is a little bothersome but I understand he looking for who he can trust and it will take some time.
ReplyDeleteI'm usually pretty tough on the rotations, and advocating for more 7 or 8 man. Honestly that's one area I can give the staff some pass on so far. Outside the obvious guys like Small, Johnson, and Diboundje I've oscillated on who should even play more in that next tier over the course of the season.
DeleteI wasn't sure on Felton, but he's joined the 1st tier guys for me now solidly. A guy like LaCount I thought was in the 1st tier early has slipped lately. I thought Johnson should have played more against SC State and a little more overall, but I've seen worse uses of a top 2 player at ECU. There should be enough information to tighten them up to at least 9 or 10 pretty soon because unfortunately there are some obvious cuts emerging at the bottom now and the top 4 or 5 are distancing themselves.
I read your post game of the Coppin State game and tend to agree with your points. What Small has accomplished so far this season is just completely unexpected. Brandon Johnson has also been a huge factor and RJ Felton has clearly elevated his game considerably. And Ezra is becoming a star right in front of our eyes. I'm wondering whether or not the team's play so far has caused you to rethink your pre-season listing of the top players in the AAC. I think Small and Johnson in particular have played well enough to contend for being included in the top 50. What say you?
ReplyDeleteI predicted 10-21(3-15) #245 NET in the preseason. Torvik currently projects ECU to finish 13-18(5-13) #245 NET which is exactly what I would predict now. I'd also lean towards the over on 5 wins more so than under at this point completely because of Small. ECU has a top player in the AAC, no doubt now. Also the AAC is looking much worse than expected with SMU/USF, Tulsa all projected 240+ which is why the NET isn't any higher even with a few more wins.Everyone thought they'd be more like top 130. Me too on USF/SMU.
DeleteI do think after doing what Small has done for 11 games this is real and he is a top player in the AAC. I'd be more shocked if he completely fell off now than continued on this path. I'm sure those numbers will fall some but everyone does in good conferences. He's ranked top 50-100 in all major cats in the nation. I'll probably try to do a rerank of the top 25 AAC players before the conference. You have to factor in the poor SOS and knock him some for that probably I haven't looked at the rest of the conference's SOS. He's played so we'll he'll still be near the top for me. Seriously he's been a top 50 player this year so far.
Johnson I think takes more of a hit in conference. The things Small is doing I expect he will still do. He's already a good hard shot maker. Johnson is getting more stuff that will be cut off by better teams and defensively there are still questions at a place you can't hide.
Ory,
ReplyDeleteHow different is Coach S's defensive scheme different from Dooley's? Is it fundamentally different from an X and O standpoint or is it personnel? Watching from the stands it is hard to see how they differ unless one is really into the weeds.
By the overall stats the defensive numbers are virtually the same (163rd this year vs 164th in adjusted defense last year). The current ranks are 125th vs 186th but that's still with the harder part of the season to come this year. Probably see them end in a similar place.
DeleteNot having Vance Jackson in the post probably helps the interior defense. Johnson also appears stronger and more capable than last season which helps. Schematically Dooley would play zone some most every game, usually to try to stop the bleeding on the interior. Most teams would shoot ECU out of that, and he'd take his poison again more slowly on the interior but there was a lot more zone overall last year.
The biggest differences I see in their man defenses is that ECU guards farther out on the perimeter. That's why you saw a lot more backcuts on the team early on. They've cleaned that up more as the season went on but at a cost of giving up more three's. This ECU team still has defended the 3 pointer much better by the numbers. Two point percentage given up is similar.
Related to the defense is the defensive rebounding as well and ending the possessions. Not giving up point blank put backs. The defensive rebounding is almost identical. Where ECU excels rebounding is offensively (27th nationally) and getting fouled on putbacks.
Is there a stat that can indicate why so many teams are missing point blank shots and put-backs at the rim? I don't know if it any worse than in the past but I have watched a bunch of games and it seems to be a problem for many teams-Pirates included. At first I thought it was just us but when I started paying more attention it seems widespread.
ReplyDeleteI'm not aware of a stat that could show that. Bart Torvik has shot information. ECU is shooting .562% on "close" shots this season vs .522% last year. ECU is also taking more shots around the rim per game this season.
DeleteHe also has dunks separated. Last year ECU was 29-39 (.744%) on dunk attempts. This season ECU is 30-36 (.833%) on dunks. A couple of things emerge from that. ECU already has as many dunk attempts this year in half the games. That's a very good sign with Ausar being the biggest difference at 9 of 12 on dunk attempts. RJ Felton was only 3 of 8 on dunks last year but 4 of 5 this year.
While it may seem like ECU is missing more close bunnies this season I think the numbers indicate otherwise, at least here. He doesn't have the overall numbers. They track the overall percentage in college basketball for things like three's from year to year so I'm sure it's somewhere. I used to pay for synergy but it took multiple times contacting them and 8 months of charging me after I asked them to stop to finally cancel me. The free sites are deep enough for me at this point.
thanks. at least we are getting better @ close range. :)
ReplyDeleteOry,
ReplyDeleteA while back I asked you if there was a statistic that could reveal whether players are missing more bunnies. You replied that you didn't think there was one but one could possibly measure it indirectly and you referred to a Torvik stat. I was catching up on your cite today and got sidetracked into looking for a "dictionary" for basketball stat acronyms. Here is what I ran across:
Layup – the number of layups made. This is determined by tapping one of the layup buttons on the Track Stats screen after a 2 point basket has been made.
LayupA – the number of layups attempted. This is determined by tapping one of the layup buttons on the Track Stats screen after a 2 point basket has been missed.
Layup% – the percentage of layups made, Layup% = (Layup / LayupA) x 100
Paint Pt – the number of points scored in the free throw lane (the paint)
PaintA – the number of shot attempts taken from within the free throw lane (the paint)
There is a phone app involved here as I understand it. I found it while I was looking for a formula for usage rate. I have bookmarked the page and can send you the link if you want it. I will check back here in a day or two.
saw a thread on htc today about ecu games with george mason. gmu hit the portal and brought in several transfers some of whom seem like the kind of transfers that you would advocate for ecu. take a look at them under the "ECU to begin home & home with George mason.
ReplyDelete