Assessing the Challenges Facing ECU Basketball

 

ECU faces significant challenges in finding a replacement for Ludgy Debaut. Upon reviewing the lineup data this summer, it became evident that Ludgy was an integral part of nearly all of the most effective lineups last season. His presence allowed for the repositioning of Ausar or Johnson to power forward or alongside of Debaut together in a massive lineups also with a 6-6 PG in Walker. ECU was an elite rebounding team with this structure, and it's how ECU competed.

 

When Johnson and Ausar were the primary post players together those lineups last year were -9.6 per 100 possessions as an overall pairing. With Debaut as well as a 6-6 point guard  in the most successful lineup it strengthening their defensive capabilities and enhancing rebounding performance. At the end of the year Debaut was playing 20 minutes a game and that's when ECU was at it's best with him unlocking these big elite rebounding teams. 

I had doubts regarding the potential of the freshman bigs to step up and take on a 25 year old like Ludgy's role. However, after the first game, it's apparent that if they couldn't secure playtime in a comfortable 30-point victory against a D3 team,they likely will not be a factor at all.

The rest of the team's structure remains largely unchanged, with Pettiford stepping in for Debaut essentially. However, this alteration significantly shifts the team identity from what it was in that  last successful stretch of 10 games, where ECU performed  well and what is remembered by many and got them excited. Debaut held a significant role, playing half the game down the stretch, while Walker almost never left the court at point guard.These are massive changes in what to expect this season and that team likely can't exist without Ludgy or someone that can do the things he did.

 

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The lineup ECU started in game one with LaCount and Diboundje was -88.1 per 100 possessions last year and played 25 possessions. I didn't even think it was possible to post a number like that. Most of  the best lineups last year included either Ludgy or Bayela and the worst ones LaCount and Diboundje.

 

With Ludgy gone this best hope seems to be Bayela and this is the lineup that is most proven to work last year.

 

Walker, Felton, Bayela,BJ and Ausar it was +25.6 and played 101 possessions together last year.

 

 ECU needs Baylea's defense and rebounding now more without a 3rd big. They need to get bigger at the PG too to help the defense and rebounding as well.

 

Lineups with LaCount at PG last year were -17.2.

Lineups with Walker at PG last year were +6.0

Lineups with Small at PG last year were -1.9

 

ECU used 5 scholarships and seems to have added only 1 rotation player in Pettiford to replace Ludgy. The team was +1 with Pettiford on the court in 18 minutes in game one vs a D3 team, a game ECU won by 30 points. that was the lowest plus minus on the team.

If Pettiford possessed the three-point scoring prowess of  Akeem Richmond, a scenario where ECU could potentially outscore opponents and create space for Ausar and Johnson to work then I could see a path. However, this doesn't align with the established identity of the team last year or what they say they want to build on defense.  This teams three point shooting was 315th, and there wasn't a proven player added to offset that which makes it hard to try to outscore teams missing this element. I don't see much of a path for that now with the freshman bigs unlikely to be a factor. The one option is Bayela  stepping up and playing a bigger role it seems.