OOC
I would say 10-3 vs should be expected vs an OOC this
weak. Last year the OOC was ranked 353rd on KenPom and this season the OOC
projects just as bad as I have talked about extensively before. Even the teams that were decent last year like GMU and Kennesaw State have new coaches and lost their best players. This is an ECU team on the otherhand that returns elite continuity 17th in minutes returning. It's also one of the worst shooting teams in the nation in every aspect. I could
see cold shooting nights and an upsets along the way as well. 10-3 isn't even very good vs this kind of OOC. It's just kind of shooting par this OOC is so bad. Especially with the 10 win D3 team. That's a free win.
AAC
The AAC certainly took a massive step back. ECU only playing FAU and Memphis once each gives them a weaker SOS as well within league. I'm going to say 10-8. The team doesn't leave home enough OOC to be comfortable winning on the road, and going on the road is a shock. By that point the continuity advantage they should have early in the year will be minimized some as well.
Conclusion
So with the 11th straight awful OOC in the 330+ range and a regressing AAC I think ECU should hit that "magical" 20 win" mark. 20-11 OOC. It should be expected, but my guess is that would only get ECU in the 165th type of range nationally vs a SOS like this. That could even be generous. ECU was 16-17 and were 188th last year in NET vs a better overall SOS than this one seems to be. 20 wins seems kind of like the median expected outcome. 17 to 25 seems like the range. I'm not sure 25 wins would (24 D1 wins) would even crack the top 125 in NET. This team will need to win a lot more than 20 games to actually be respected vs this SOS. I think the team has talent but I'm setting it at 20 wins because of the lack of shooting and being less than the sum of it's parts IMO and questions on who plays PG most of the minutes and I think Ludgy will be more of a loss than previously thought. With Hayes I Would expect 2 to 3 more wins.
