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The season is almost in the books, I think it's time to take an introspective look at some of the predictions. I got nothing on the UCF game. I left it running in the background and when Pooh the Walk On started making plays I knew I wanted to spend my time differently.
ECU outperformed my expectations. Granted there wasn't much to go on with so many unknowns in the preseason. I predicted a 245 finish in the NET. That was too low as ECU is 209th and projected to finish around the same even with a loss. I expect Johnson to be the best player on the team while most ECU fans and national media tabbed Tabbs. That was correct, especially as skeptical as I was on Tabbs staying in the rotation as I questioned the defense. Even when he was healthy he wasn't good.
I was wrong on Small with the caveat that we didn't get to see him against the better competition much. When in those 5 AAC games he was pretty bad. I think how wrong I was is still a little incomplete. The start to his season was amazing but he was coming back down to earth before the injury. It could have just been him hitting tough shots vs bad teams early but I still believe he has value as a passer and will be important to keep regardless.
AAC
Here are my Preseason Rank of the top 30 with the current PER and PRPG Rank on the Right Side. Keep in mind the SOS is different, much different at ECU for example. That needs to be considered but I think it's helpful in grading overall as a guidepost
25 and 29 played 4 games combined. Don't think they can be counted.
The Big Misses
I had V. Lahkin 55th and he's obviously been way better than that leading the league in PER. He averaged 4.2ppg /19 PER last year. The 2nd best player by PER Roberts I had 43rd. He averaged 3.2ppg /17 PER last year. Those are the notable misses big misses that outplayed the rankings. The were productive which is why I ranked them at all, but I don't think anyone expected what they have become.
Lahkiin I thought would back up Kalu Ezikpe who barely plays but I stand by the process. He's pretty productive, Ezikpe ranking about 22nd if he played enough to qualify. Having seen him twice last year and the way he played in a pretty high-level CUSA I'd still pick a player like that high again. I think he just went to the wrong team with lots of post-player options and is buried on the bench. Big miss though.
Kevin Cross and Davenport were worse than this year than they had been. I think they were still the right picks at the time. Cross was 4th in the AAC last year in PER, he just failed to replicate it.
I'll take my lumps on Damaria Franklin I just got him wrong. He certainly had a tough situation getting to Memphis late and not getting eligible until mid-December. He had averaged 18ppg 7rpg at UIC but I should have thought more about what his role would be at Memphis with Davis and Williams and how inefficient as he was even at a lower level conference. I thought he might be a little better at shooting with better players around him and less pressure. He just can't shoot. I missed on R. Wright similarly as a lower transfer.
Here are the big misses that outperformed my ranks.
All and all I think the rankings turned out OK considering there were so many newcomers. ECU's situation was the most confusing regarding who would play with new coaches etc. Obviously, someone was going to get the usage. I figured Johnson would be the most efficient at about 18.0 PER. The Team ended up a little better, the AAC a lot worse. I thought Tulsa would be bad but yikes, I had Konkol on the list of coaches last year I thought ECU should consider, but after this year glad ECU got Schwartz over him or Lanier.
