I expected ECU would find 1 more upset win in the last 3 games and Tulane was the most likely at home. I didn't expect them to dominate like they did. It was probably the best win of the season with Tulane coming into Minges as a #97 NET team and the way it was won. ECU was #208 before the game and what was disappointing to me is how baked in the season is now by the metrics. Even after thumping them which also helps earn value in the rankings ECU only moved up 2 spots the next day and Tulane only dropped 2 spots to 99th.
Now two days later for the rematch at Tulane has moved up to 97th again with ECU still sitting at #206th. The positive is this is a chance at another top 100 win, and with it being on the road this should hopefully get ECU into the top 200 with a win which is still a goal I would like to see. As it is ECU is projected to lose the last 2 games and finish #211 in the NET. Getting one of these wins on the road in the last two games should get us close at least or just into the top 200. It would also secure a non losing season and make it far more likely I expect to motivate the program to give the CBI a shot. If you read the previous article ECU could probably go regardless but at .500 it makes more sense.
Walker continues to play well the last month. What is amazing is even after one of the better months I've seen in a pirate uniform he just now has cracked a 10.4 PER, and his true shooting still only sits a .465 %. That's while shooting 31-59 overall in the last 7 games and 8-19 from 3. I've seen some talk about how some were wrong about him. That seems premature considering the overall, his numbers are still pretty unimpressive on the season. Obviously you want to keep him and hope this continues with his versatility, but this could just be one of the craziest months similar to how Small started (albeit vs a weak SOS). Walker has an extensive history too.
I'm not sure what it would be, but perhaps it's something about the way the ECU guards play or teams guard the plays, that allows these wild streaks. Small was on an awful streak of his own before injury even after his start. He made all kinds of hard shots to start the season then tanked.. Felton as well is about as as streaky a player as I have ever seen at ECU. ECU is no stranger to streaking players but these three have had some of the biggest streaks. You could even throw Baylea in there as well but he's not playing as much now. You like the upside but I still worry about WTF games with the level of streakiness of those three.
The team metrics are better than I expected (I thought 240ish overall rank preseason), but the individual efficiency is now basically where I expected. Ausar is a little better. I expect no one on ECU's team to be that efficient other than Johnson, and that's pretty much been the case. I thought Johnson would lead the team in PER at about 18. The rebounding and Ausar's offense is basically the difference that has kept ECU afloat and given second chances to score. ECU's offense and defense are 240+, so there seems to be some overachieving. ECU also has a negative point differental even with a winning record. That's a good sign on the coaching probably.
I don't think Small would have maintained his efficiency through the AAC schedule the way he started. Every ECU players numbers have dropped some since the OOC as you would expect.
It's a bit superficial trying to get a winning record vs this SOS, crack the top 200, and talking the CBI but it's nice to have some goals this late in a season and feel like you are building towards something. All aspects for a first year coach that would be a helpful. Hopefully ECU can get the season sweep tonight and step towards securing some of those goals. The real thing to watch in about 3 weeks will be keeping the players that matter and if the team will make any hard choices about who should go. The rotations are as tight as they have been lately. I think it's pretty obvious who figures into that equation and who doesn't.
I am cautiously optimistic about the future with this group, and by future I mean next year, if and BIG IF we can retain the 4 important pieces (Small/Felton/BJ/Ausar). I don't think Walker is really as good as he's shown the last few weeks, but I do believe he's a versatile role player at the AAC level, and I'm probably the high person on Diboundje and actually think he's a guy who could take a leap forward in the offseason. I'm not concerned about Walker and Diboundje leaving, but they are also the least important of the returners. I think if you returned that entire group of 6 players that alone would make a leap forward next year with how young the group is, and really might be 1-2 additions away from being legit good and not just good by ECU's pathetic standards. Of course this is where the biggest question mark of the Schwartz roster building plan resides, can you retain young good players on a team that hasn't accomplished anything in the portal/NIL era? 5-10 years ago I'd be irrationally excited about the short and long term future of this roster. We'll see, if we lose 2-3 of them then basically this is back to square 1.
ReplyDeleteBingo. Walker and Diboundje burned their free transfers, they kind of can't leave now with the NCAA saying they are cracking down on 2nd transfer waivers. That's a good thing IMO and I hope they stay. Walker at least is a solid back up PG and Swiss army knife type of useful player that can hold up and guard 4 positions. I don't mind him as a role player. Diboundje has some of if not the highest upside on the team.
ReplyDeleteI think the one player ECU can't lose is Johnson. They could take a loss of one of basically anyone but him. He's the best player but not only that he's important if Ausar stays as a plus rebounder and the best three point shooter on the team beside of him. Ausar is a light rebounder and can't shoot a lick. I'm not very hopeful he ever shoots either. I don't see a lot of players shoot 46% from the line at his size and ever actually shoot well in college. I just think that's who he is and you can forget 3's. He can still be good but with that there is a certain type of team you need to build around him and that PF is the most crucial part of that and the hardest to find plus three point shooters that can rebound or block shots. BJ does at least 2 of those well.
Those 6+ the 2 incoming freshman, plus the portal would be ideal. I think we know that's not what the man has said he wants. I hope he can keep those 6 and adjust some because I agree it could be a good team if it added some transfers. If ECU runs it back with these current freshman or loses some of the core 4 and replaces them with more freshman with 2 offers I wouldn't be shocked though. This next month is the most crucial month Schwartz will likely have here. It probably will define if he's successful or not.
I think Ausur can improve his shooting at least out to 15 feet. This kid most likely dominated HS ball within 5 ft of the rim. Now he has the whole summer to work on that shot. It can be done and I think we see a jump. He is way too coordinated to shoot as bad as he does. His touch and athletic ability around the rim tell me that with enough practice that outside jumper will improve. He has the ability and coordination to do it. His shot doesnt even look that bad when you look at his mechanics. He just never had to learn to shoot
ReplyDeleteHe averaged 9ppg and 9rpg I believe in high school. That tells me if he was getting 9 rebounds he was playing a decent amount and just not a major offensive option on that team. I think his team was good, but he wasn't dominating. Even at that as a big you have to be able to make FT's because you are getting fouled more and I bet he's practiced those every day, and he's still shooting poorly.
ReplyDeleteHe's really good, and the Houston game showed he has elite rebounding gear if he wants to use it. I can kind of see some why Schwartz was benching him earlier in the year for not rebounding now. Ausar averaged 22.4 minutes a game this year. That's still low in retrospect but he was cruising along with underwhelming rebound numbers for a long time.
I don't see him ever being a 75% free throw shooter much less a three point shooter. 15 feet 2's are bad shots for anyone, no interest in him taking those unless it's to free up some space like Gardner did to drive. The difference is you wanted Gardner doing it because he would get fouled and go shoot free throws at 75%. That's how he was able to be efficient. Ausar felt more like it was a turnover this year when he was fouled. That's an issue, especially in late games.