I had a debate where I was asked point blank how I thought a Dooley 5th year might have gone.
These are the adjusted stats (for SOS) for this season from Torvik
Small's number probably would have regressed if he played more minutes in the AAC. Maybe Walker's numbers wouldn't be as bad if he wasn't asked to do things he's not capable of.
This is how it compares to last season.
Newton ate up a lot of minutes at a high value. The question was posed to me how would the team have done this season without Newton. Even the person constantly trying to sell that Newton would comeback conceded that there was a chance he would have left. I think the chance is pretty small he' at ECU considering he was always going to get an NIL agent calling and offers that were more than ECU could pay. Even the draw of his brother cited ultimately didn't matter.
These are the players they claim could have been on the team and their numbers this season. (Lestin hasn't played)
As the question was posed to me, this person also thought the team would do better even without Newton. This is the current difference in NET Rankings as well as the projected NET finish from last year.
As you can see the team really isn't that much worse with the combination of Schwartz and minus Newton. (36 spots). I think without Newton evening assuming a decent add similar to Jackson the results are similar. The talent may have been slightly better since Schwartz's recruits have disappointed.
Dooley's coaching brings it down to a similar level IMO. I don't think Dooley gets the same amount of out of players like Small or Felton. There is history of underachieving with players like Newton and Gardner.
If Newton was back I think the most likely outcome is a similar season to last year. Even if he got the same out of Johnson (replacing Jackson), Small and Felton it took 90 percentile luck last season to get to 183.
This is Dooley's RPI history as a coach
185.7 Average
He has coached 13 seasons and 2 were better than a 135 ranking. He inherited a team that went to the Sweet 16 and returned 4 starters at FGCU. Underachieving not just at ECU, but the last FGCU team had an NBA player at PG and 12ppg ACC scorer on it and finished 172nd in year 5. That's probably similar to what I think he would have coached a team in year 5 with Newton on it.
When you look at the 2 teams out of 13 that were better than 135th , you could argue one of those underachieved as well. That 85 RPI team had 2 NBA future players on it and another player that averaged 12ppg at Miami. One of the NBA players was coming off the bench. Stuff like that is coaching.
That's the level of talent he proved he needed to crack the top 100 the outliers. The 1996 team I give him credit for helping to build as an assistant, but he inherited it. It also had a NBA player.
I think he's had seasons with players as good or better than Newton at FGCU and proven that only gets them to about the 170 range. 135th seems like the ceiling if everything went right. His typical ceiling was more 135 to 145 range and average of 185.75 even with teams of multipe good players. That's over 13 seasons of history.
I think it's clear exactly what to expect at this point. Even with Gardner as a 5th year senior with Newton he probably wouldn't crack the top 100 or get to an NIT out of the AAC. Thats the history.
