Could ECU beat Northwest Florida State?

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It's no secret I thought ECU had an experienced head coach on staff last season I would have been fine with bringing back, it just wasn't Dooley.  DeMeo should have been given the interim job the last month and a half to see what he could do when the rumors of Tennesse assistants first surfaced. It was clear Dooley wouldn't be back. 


Northwest Florida State would have likely beat ECU most years in his previous tenure their. They went 170-27 and when you look at the level of players recruited. I've detailed the entire list before, and it's a who's who list of successful power conference players like Chris Durate, DJ Funderburk, Jared Wilson-Frame, Andrés Feliz, Braelen Bridges etc. 


NWF had 1 player return from their team last season. He averaged 3.3ppg.  They went out and brought in 6 players with D1 experience. Only 5 are on the team now, but they are all in the top 6 scorers on the team and averaging 10+ppg. The other is a freshman from Charlotte who decommitted from Illinois State after they changed coaches. Also a 10ppg scorer.

 

Currently, that team is 20-6 and ranked 20th in the NJCAA national rankings. They've won 6 in a row including beating the #3 team on the road so it seems to peaking now.


Of those 5 D1 transfers, 4 of them are ranked in the Top 26  individual JUCO players.  (#9, #13,  #18, and #26) 


2023 Junior College Basketball Top 100 Player Rankings (jucorecruiting.com)


The only one not ranked averaged 4.5ppg at TCU.  It also seems like Baker-Maraza should be higher. I'd take him over the #1 ranked JUCO recruit on the list and former ECU signee JaQuan Scott simply because Baker-Mazara is proven on a Top 25 NCAA team before. He had the 2nd highest defensive rating on the best defensive team in the nation. He also shot at an elite level. His PRPG was 3rd on the team.


I understand most JUCO's usually had qualifying issues in the past, but these were all players that qualified in D1 . I don't know their situations but I'm not sure they aren't just there for exposure. Former pirates Tae Hardy, Baruiti, Pig Jackson, or Maruice Kemp all used JUCO after starting in D1. I don't believe there was any grade issues with most of them.


 I've read with all the transfers, even some high school recruits that are qualified are being pushed to JUCO because of the hundreds of extra years given for 5th year Covid players. This could just be a case of saving the free transfer and looking for a place to get exposure before getting to a higher level for some of them like Pryor, Warren, or even some of the freshman recruits. Two of their freshman recruits are from Charlotte that committed to Illinois State and decommitted after that coach was fired. Seems like they were qualified, and one is their 4th leading scorer.


These are theoretically the same players that could have been recruited to ECU.  Perhaps better ones with the AAC brand but this team is at least a solid analog for how he would have rebuilt here IMO. I think this is what the floor would have been. JUCO is nothing but underclassmen but he got older players to compete.


Before the season I would have picked NWF to win. I expected Johnson to have a good season but the way Small, and Felton have played it would likely make it closer.  The real difference it seems is in the recruiting of players Ausar, Walker,  Dibounjde, Bayela, and LaCount.  What NWF added to their team last spring is better.


 If you add four top 25 JUCO's with meaningful D1 experience to what returned its a serious team.   



Pryor6-10
9th JUCO, deep bench on top 25 team
Johnson6-8
Baker-Mazara6-7
13th JUCO, 6.4ppg on top 25 team
Warren6-5
18th JUCO, 9.1ppg at McNeese
Small6-2



Nickleback6-2
26th JUCO, was deep bench on top 50 team
Todd6-44.5ppg at TCU
Felton
6-3


That's they could shoot out of every position. Pryor and Baker-Mazra are 40% three point shooters. Debaut as well who I didn't list is a former NWF player. 




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