I was asked to give my thoughts on realignment a couple weeks ago. There has always been a sense of urgency for me in basketball to not completely suck. It goes back as far as the first time being left out of CUSA. To me ECU was fortunate at the time to get into a conference with good basketball when it did, especially the AAC more recently that had resources and TV advantages. I think it was pretty obvious that basketball was the biggest anchor holding ECU back.
What the lesson of CUSA's 1.0 collapse taught me was schools with that kind of resources and academics were always going to be pushing to get to a better situation and away from schools like ECU. The problem now is the chase to get to those conferences is probably over. ECU is being chased down now by schools that didn't have football 25 years ago. Certainly, some of this is out of ECU's control, but this was hurt by self-inflicted wounds in football and a complete lack of any standards in basketball has really left ECU in this vulnerable position.
I didn't think the AAC 1.0 would be as short-lived as it was, but I also didn't expect it to last forever. I even said a decade ago that it was the time to capitalize on the window ECU had and firmly position itself over area schools like UNCC, UNCW, ODU, Richmond, College of Charleston, UNCG, etc in basketball. I wasnt expecting anything crazy just basically dont suck. Be more reflective of the top 125 level resources you put in as a goal.
That should have been the first level goal and one that was attainable in recruiting over them and being better with the advantages of the AAC. These schools likely didn't even average a 125 RPI/NET in the last decade.
The Problem is ECU averaged 200+ and failed miserably. Even as recently as last year, you had fans wanting to extend a coach that barely peaked in the top 200 after 4 years. Thats how you suck and get stuck in this mindset.
I've read recently about the Pac-12 TV deal being projected as underwhelming. It's been reported previously that Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado have been approached by the Big 12 and they listened. It's also been reported that SMU was visited by Pac 12. This would be an indication to me that the Big 12 is a little more stable.
I think Phil Knight-Nike/ Oregon and Washington are pushing hard to get to the Big Ten. That could eventually happen because UCLA and USC would welcome that. There will be some more restructuring up top, I dont pretent to know who, when or where, but the Big 12 is in a favorable position. I don't see a path for ECU.
I think there is a finacial and academic profile of schools likley to get out of the AAC and this might be the time those high-resource schools like Houston, SMU, and Memphis can finally get away from ECU for good with those expanding to 16 or more teams. If Pac-12 becomes the big loser in all of this it seems likely today, ECU has no chance at that point of anything better than whatever is the top non-power conference. I've started to expect that honestly.
To me, it seems like ECU will settle into a conference with these core schools longterm.
ECU probably has to hope on the potential of schools like FAU and UTSA long-term instead and even that is a double edge sword as bigger market schools if there is any more expansion in a decade or 2. I think SMU and Memphis with their resources are gone at some point to whatever is left of the loser of the Big 12 and Pac 12. USF might get a lifeline eventually as well as the top of the MWC to that.
I think Witchita State eventually sees no value in staying in this version of the AAC without Memphis and goes to the Atlantic 10 or at worst back to the MVC. Temple may even try to UConn their basketball back to the A10 and let their football go independent again although I see that as unlikely. I think of the rest of the G5 the Sun Belt seems pretty settled. I think whatever is left of the MWC and some of CUSA might combine.
The One Bright Spot
Unfortunately, there is likely a ceiling now. ECU still has an opportunity with an advantage in money the next decade over the new AAC members. My understanding is the current members will get around 7 million dollars from the conference until 2033 while the 6 new members will get 2.3 million. That is a significant windfall and ECU needs to capitalize on putting some distance in between itself and especially the new members like FAU, UTSA, North Texas, and UNCC before they become true AAC peers and not 2nd class citizens.
ECU completely squandered the more important window it had the last decade to establish something overthem. It's got another decade now to salvage while some extra advantages are there and build what it can between the new members and the rest of the G5 before it becomes essenially level ground for all the have nots.
That's why patience and all this other long-haul build bullshit doesn't fly especially in the world of the portal. There is no time for it. There is no taking time and investing in dudes that are 185th in basketball in year 4 or watching them slowly build it for 5 or 6 years. The last 10 years ECU pissed away were the most important advantages ECU will ever have. The next ten years is probably the last real advantages ECU has over everyone left out of the power conferences.
