Unfortunately, ECU doesn't have such a great football history that 7-5 seasons can be written off. These are good seasons and I wanted to find a ranking system that was objective with some SOS components. The only system I found that went back through the entire 58-year D1 history of ECU football was sports-reference simple rating system. After reading their method it seems pretty sound, taking into account the margin of victory, SOS etc although the results at the top are surprising. Here is the background on the system....
SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average, although it should be noted that margin of victory has been assigned a lower bound of 7 points and an upper bound of 24 points. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. My colleague Doug Drinen ofPro-Football-Reference.comhas written agreat explanation of this method.
All Time Season's Ranked By SRS
SRS
SOS
1
1983
8
3
10
2.64
2
1976
9
2
9.9
-1.37
3
1991
11
1
9.29
-1.55
4
1979
7
3
8.99
-2.47
5
1996
8
3
8.17
-0.47
6
1973
9
2
7.77
-6.23
7
2000
8
4
6.93
-0.07
8
1999
9
3
6.84
-0.66
9
1995
9
3
6.82
1.9
10
1978
9
3
5.89
-3.77
11
1977
8
3
4.42
-4.67
12
2013
10
3
4.3
-7.17
13
1994
7
5
4.02
0.52
14
2009
9
5
3.58
-0.85
15
2022
7
5
3.57
-0.1
16
2001
6
6
2.59
-1.42
17
2014
8
5
2.35
-4.96
18
2021
7
5
1.92
-0.83
19
1975
8
3
1.89
-7.3
20
2008
9
5
1.58
-1.49
21
1965
9
1
1.56
-15.74
22
2007
8
5
1
-1.38
23
1972
9
2
0.23
-8.14
24
2006
7
6
-0.6
-1.06
25
1990
5
6
-1.13
0.41
26
1974
7
4
-1.14
-8.59
27
2015
5
7
-1.27
-0.93
28
1987
5
6
-1.44
2.75
29
1988
3
8
-1.53
5.2
30
1982
7
4
-1.69
-5.87
31
1967
8
2
-2.11
-10.01
32
1981
5
6
-2.23
1.14
33
1989
5
5
-2.25
-1.61
34
1997
5
6
-3.07
0.39
35
2012
8
5
-4.23
-4.92
36
2010
6
7
-4.48
0.13
37
1980
4
7
-4.97
2.03
38
1998
6
5
-4.98
-4.16
39
2011
5
7
-5.04
-1.79
40
1992
5
6
-6.21
-1.67
41
2020
3
6
-6.43
-1.98
42
2005
5
6
-6.49
-2.86
43
2002
4
8
-7.15
-1.4
44
1985
2
9
-7.21
2.7
45
1986
2
9
-8.79
4.12
46
2016
3
9
-9.69
-0.11
47
2019
4
8
-9.85
-2.85
48
1984
2
9
-10.47
-1.65
49
2018
3
9
-11.08
-2.41
50
2017
3
9
-12.37
-0.04
51
2004
2
9
-12.89
-0.07
52
1971
4
6
-13.16
-5.46
53
1966
4
5
-13.84
-12.84
54
1993
2
9
-14.62
-2.07
55
2003
1
11
-16.02
-1.44
56
1968
4
6
-16.55
-13.05
57
1970
3
8
-19.8
-10.71
58
1969
2
7
-20.82
-11.38
Of course, I would have had the 11-1 seasons ECU finished 9th in the AP poll ahead of the 8-3 season ECU finished 20th and didn't even get to play in a bowl. I think everyone would, but when you really dig into that to the 1983 season you understand what the computer is seeing. A team that lost 3 games by 13 points on the road to Florida State, Florida, and the eventual National Champion that year Miami. Florida also finished 6th, Florida State 7-5. I've read a quote from Ed Emory asking what they would have done with ECU had they found 16 more points. That's a good question. They also beat Missouri on the road who was 7-5 and receiving votes in the final poll, USM (7-4), and NC State (3-8).
I have a harder time explaining why the 1976 season is also ranked higher, but I do believe ECU was one of the top vote-getters just outside the polls that season. The Southern Conference was D1 that season, so while the names don't sound impressive today like Furman or VMI , they had D1 wins It's still an interesting metric that places this football season 15th out of 58. It's ahead of Carden's last year in the AAC where ECU went 8-5, but I think beating blowing out UNC and beating Virginia Tech was bigger. It's ranked ahead of the first Skip Holtz championship team which was 9-5. It's ranked ahead of the 8-5 team that beat Boise State in a bowl, and Ruffs 2012, 8-5 team that lost in the New Orleans bowl. So this season is higher than a lot of recent seasons I think most would have a few over.
I thought it was pretty interesting that the 5-7 team that got Ruff fired is ranked higher than one of his 8-5 seasons, in this system. It came against a much better SOS and was highly competitive. This season is only a few points behind the 2009 2nd CUSA championship season of Holtz. A Bowl win and 8-5 finish likely put it as the 14th-best season in their ranking system. There is a significant enough lead on the 16th-best season that it's unlikely to drop past 15 even with a loss.
I can understand any pushback, some of it seems a little off. It especially seems way off from all the respected metrics in basketball but that's a level with a lot bigger ranges of SOS. I believe it would probably work better in football. Their system is seeing something of value in this season by the numbers. I thought it was interesting,
Edit: After the Bowl and I suppose the margin of victory playing some into it this season finished 11th all-time in ECU history in SRS.
