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Coming into the game South Carolina was 289th in NET and projected to finish 260th This is probably the worst team with an NBA lottery pick you will ever see. Granted Jackson just turned 18 today so maybe he shouldn't be expected to completely carry a team as old as college basketball is. There were 24 and 25-year-old players on the court today. I do think South Carolina has more talent than their results say they have and it was a solid win away from home.
Felton was clearly motivated to take down the flagship of his home state after not getting recruited by them. After this game, he's probably played himself into the top 25 conversation of AAC players if I had done my rankings a week later. The overall defensive effort was strong today, probably the best all season. I thought Bayela had his best game. It's the first game I would call "good" that he's played this season. He's been playing better lately but I still think Diboundje has clearly had a better season and Diboundje didn't play today. Maybe he's hurt and I missed it, but I can't understand that one.
The rotation was finally cut to 9 today. Even if Diboundje isn't going to play over Bayela, I'd still rather see him than Debaut and Pinedo at this point. ECU has played him with Walker in the post at other points in the season, so it's a lineup they have used. South Carolina might be big, but I still think he provides more value than either of them even in a game like that. I thought both Debaut and Pinedo playing 16 minutes combined was way to much in this game. ECU was -6 in their minutes and that's 's when South Carolina mounted their comeback.
Ausar was benched for them because he had 3 fouls, well he finished the game with 3 fouls. He's the one that should have been out there when South Carolina was making their comeback IMO. That's something I will never understand. Coaches bench players because they are scared they will foul out yet they assure the very thing they are supposedly trying to avoid. That they don't play. Ausar only played 22 minutes today and still led the team in plus/minus (+11). Obviously he's valuable and needs to play every minute he possibly can. That's an inefficiency to sit him out and then he goes home with 2 fouls to give. If he fouls out so what, at least let him earn that seat on the bench. If he fouls out then play Debaut/Pinedo, or better yet Diboundje.
As good as Small has been I thought he's took some fast bad shots the last 5 minutes of the game. This has happened several times this season with Small, Johnson, and Bayela taking quick 3's or long twos when ECU really just needs to be playing the clock. Most of the game was positive, but there are still some aspects like these that need to be cleaned up to compete with much better teams than South Carolina team was.
BTW thank god Schwarts will schedule a "major" conference team so ECU actually has a chance to win. At least we won't have to hear about not beating a P5 team for a while. That's as much on Dooley and Lebo for not scheduling them as it is the actual team for not winning. They barely would even play them and that's the schedule makers' fault. ECU didn't have this issue before they got there. They at least gave themselves chances not to have a stat like that.
First chance I've had to get to site again. Agree with your comments about USC game. I can't figure out if we are a first half team or a second half team because we have done both.:) Good observation about Ausar unless he gets two fouls real early of course. I am leaning strong in your position on the portal---yeah, take the HS must have kid but man there are so many good players looking for playing time. Every time I watch UConn or UVa I am reminded of the damn portal and I am afraid that guys like Small and Ausar will not finish their careers at ECU unless we start winning regularly especially with the new conference alignment coming up. In BaskB I won't miss Houston; Cinn or UCF are beatable but it is a moot point since they are leaving as well. What is your evaluation of Walker? Ii think he is starting to loosen up and it looks like his minutes are increasing. Glad you decided to create your own space. Merry Christmas!
ReplyDeleteCoach K once said that was the biggest difference between him and other coaches was, that he let his players play through fouls. His point was It won him games. ECU has always had a lot of transfers out since the Herrion days. I think it's the biggest detriment to ECU's success over decades now. Even knowing that, if this was10 years ago I'd feel good about the state of the program having Small, Johnson, Felton, and Ausar and being so young. It's a different world now with the transfer free and NIL though. I can't see keeping them all 4 years. Even keeping 2 of them would probably be a win with those new obstacles. Walkers been better than I expected. He's been a pretty solid role player here. I wouldn't want to see him asked to do more than he is, but he's pretty versatile. He's probably the closest guy we have that can play and defend all 5 positions. That has value. I think 5 to 7 wins are possible in the AAC now. ECU is better than I expected and the AAC is worse. Appreciate the kind words, you have a good Christmas too.
DeleteI was very surprised at how well we played away from home. Most of these guys have exceeded my preseason expectations. Ausur looks like a player. Small and Felton have made leaps I have not seen before with their shooting. Maybe we have someone on staff who is a shooting guru. Walker has been very solid too. Bayela actually looked like a player this game so maybe he is getting comfortable after coming back from injury. Debaut still blows. Johnson is better than expected. Quinton D must have been sick or nursing an injury. I am worried about the High Point game, they are a pretty decent team but if we win that I think we can get to my adjusted 13 wins. Who knows, the way they shoot so much better this year and play defense we might get to 15. This shows how much better Schwartz has done on the rebuild compared to Dooley who won like 7 games his first year with a lot of misses on recruiting.
ReplyDeleteFelton is also an example to the other players what a D1 basketball player's shoulders should look like! :)
DeleteI'm thinking at least 13 wins now. ECU is projected to win 14 and go 14-17 by Torvik and finish with a 223rd NET. Warren Nolan has ECU projected 15-16. The AAC is way worse this year. USF, Tulsa, and SMU are also all projected to finish 221+ and that's 1/3rd of the conference schedule.. ECU can probably finish with a winning season and still be 200+ ranked which is a sad schedule.
ReplyDeleteHistorically that would still be bad but if everyone returns there would be a reason to feel pretty good about the direction at least.. That's what I've always been skeptical about. If you do find good young players, how do you then keep them long enough with NIL and the portal age for it to matter? If ECU turns into Farm Team U this spring it's back at square one and a then I feel like it was a completely failed wasted season if UConn and the UVA's of the world then reap ECU's development through the hard years per usual. We'll see but I'd say the odds aren't good on them all graduating from ECU.
I've never really cared what a shot looks like as long as it goes in, but Felton has a weird shooting motion. We've talked about the Sweep and Sway shooting most good shooters today have where the feet go forward after their jump shot. Most have either that or a set shot. He's as straight up and down on 3 point shots as you will see. I still worry about the longterm consistency of that as bad as his misses are with complete air balls. That's what I look for when it seems like players are shooting over their head some bad misses. The more it keeps going in the more real it becomes and that he makes it work though.
You can almost tell when Felton's shot is going to fall. It looks like to me that sometimes he tends to lean backwards on his way down or he gets in a hurry and shoots before he is comfortable. He strikes me as fearless and will take it to the rack
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