AAC Player Re-Rank

 

 

The OOC schedule is essentially over with only a couple games left to play. This represent more than a third of the regular season and is a good time to do a re-rank as someone mentioned. We'll see where ECU players stand heading into conference play.

 I think it's important to note the SOS each team has played OOC for stats like PER that aren't adjusted. (It will be better after conference play)

Mem	10
Hou	50
SMU	53
Temple	60
UCF	75
WSU	80
Tulsa	142
Cin	216
USF	255
ECU	283
Tulane	303

 

I've also listed Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game. Which it is sorted by.

			PER	PRPG
1	Jalen Cook	Tul	29.0	5.4
2	Javon Small	ECU	24.2	5.0
3	Taylor Hendricks	UCF	25.6	4.9
4	Mark Sasser	Hou	24.9	4.7
5	Kendric Davis	Mem	21.1	4.6
6	Khalif Battle	Tem	20.3	4.6
7	Deandre Williams	Mem	26.2	4.3
8	David DeJulius	Cin	23.2	4.2
9	Jakwon Walton	WSU	23.0	4.0
10	Kevin Cross	Tul	24.6	3.8
11	J’Wan Roberts	Hou	26.1	3.5
12	Criag Porter	WSU	23.9	3.5
13	Brandon Johnson	ECU	23.2	3.4
14	Landers Nolley	Cin	20.4	3.3
15	Damian Dunn	Tem	14.6	3.2
16	Sam Griffin	TU	19.4	3.2
17	Zhuric Phelps	SMU	19.7	3.1
18	Sion James	Tul	16.9	3.1
19	Jaylen Forbes	Tul	19.3	3.0
20	Viktor Lakhin	Cin	32.6	2.9
21	Bryant Selebangue	TU	20.4	2.8
22	Jarace Walker	Hou	22.7	2.7
23	Brandon Betson	Tu	18.5	2.7
24	Tyler Harris	USF	14.0	2.5
25	RJ Felton	ECU	16.7	2.3
26	Jamille Reynolds	Temple	22.6	2.3
27	Mika Adams-Woods	Cin	16.8	2.2
28	Ja'Vier Francis	Hou	36.1	2.1
29	C.J. Kelly	UCF	15.5	2.1
30	Selton Miguel	USF	15.1	2.1
31	Tramon Mark	Hou	13.3	2.0
32	Jamal Sheed	Hou	15.4	2.0
33	Zach Nutall	SMU	14.3	1.9
34	Stefan Todorovic	SMU	14.9	1.9
35	Collin Holloway	Tul	18.9	1.9
36	Russel Tchewa	USF	16.8	1.9
37	Tylan Pope	Tul	23.7	1.8
38	Jeremiah Davenport	Cin	14.7	1.7
39	Quenton Diboundje	ECU	15.3	1.7
40	Michael Durr	UCF	17.9	1.7
41	Seral Smith	USF	17.3	1.7
42	Keonte Kennedy	Mem	13.2	1.6
43	Gus Okafor	WSU	14.3	1.5
44	Brandon Suggs	UCF	15.7	1.4
45	Ithiel Horton	UCF	12.6	1.4
46	Jayhlon Young	UCF		1.4
47	Ody Oguama	Cin	15.0	1.3
48	Alex Lomax	Mem	15.0	1.3
49	Jamir Chaplin	USF	13.5	1.2
50	Nick Jourdain	Tem	15.8	1.1
51	Terrance Arceneaux	Hou	14.9	0.9
52	Keyshawn Bryant	USF	15.6	0.9
53	Ezra Ausar	ECU	17.8	0.8
54	Reggie Chaney	Hou	17.5	0.8

I think it's a good representation of how the players have played to this point. It's adjusted for SOS and winning team impact.

If we are just talking about how these players have played the first 11 games it should be no shock Small is ranked near the top of the AAC. I've been pointing out statistically he's played like a top 50 player in the entire nation in multiple metrics. While Cook technically 1st, he's only played 4 games vs some terrible teams, but he does have a history of being good last year. That's where ranking Small gets tricky. He was completely terrible last year (4.4 PER, -0.1 PRPG) and even as good as he's been it's hard to completely forget that. If he plays the rest of the year like this, then sure.

If I were drafting I would still take Kendrick Davis and multiple other players over Small. There is more of a history there. Even if Small's younger I don't think you can count on him 100% being here with the Portal/NIL.  Here is how I see the re-ranks at this point, given how they have played this year, their history etc. 

(Right side is my preseason rank if they had one)

 

Top 20 Re-Rank

1	Kendric Davis	Mem	1
2	Mark Sasser	Hou	2
3	Deandre Williams	Mem	4
4	Jalen Cook	Tul	5
5	Taylor Hendricks	UCF	23
6	David DeJulius	Cin	11
7	Kevin Cross	Tul	3
8	Javon Small	ECU
9	Jarace Walker	Hou	7
10	Landers Nolley	Cin	13
11	Khalif Battle	Tem	15
12	Jakwon Walton	WSU	53
13	Criag Porter	WSU	30
14	Jaylen Forbes	Tul	14
15	J’Wan Roberts	Hou	43
16	Viktor Lakhin	Cin	55
17	Brandon Johnson	ECU
18	Damian Dunn	Tem	16
19	Sam Griffin	TU	24
20	Sion James	Tul	38

A lot of guys I had ranked in the preseason like D. Franklin (#17), Colby Rogers(#29), M. Wilson(#32) , J. Newman (#47) haven't played more than 1 game. Some others have been hurt like Jalen Cook (#5)  Keyshawn Byrant (#8), and CJ Walker (#25) have only played 5 or fewer games. 

Some people make the argument on the conference board in the past against players like Gardner and Newton.  They claimed they were "empty stats" guys. That's looking pretty dumb now that Gardner's been All ACC,and leading the team in rebounding and scoring for current #2 Virginia. Newton being key on current #3 UConn too. They would say stuff like someone has to shoot the ball and play the minutes on ECU. Does anyone think if ECU's bench players were put in the top option roles with similar usage playing 30+ minutes a game there numbers would look like Small or Johnson right now? Nope. 

 

It doesn't really work that way and these are real numbers. There are plenty of 300+-ranked teams whose leading scorers have terrible efficiency, you can tell who's for real most of the time. The only question is if they can keep it up for the rest of the season through AAC play, Where Newton and Gardner excelled most in 2020 in conference-only play which is most of the season. 

 

Those people had it backwards if anything, being on ECU was a detriment to their efficiency those years. What Gardner and Newton were doing was more impressive with no shooters or space around or supporting cast to take the pressure off them. Whatever bump they got for more usage has a ceiling.

 

I'll do another re-rank after the season when the larger portion of the season and conference is played. It's a more similar comparison then. Small and Johnson are looking legit though.