Statistical Deep Dive

 

 

I had planned to wait until after game 3 to do the first deep dive into the stats. That would be 10% of the season in the books. Since it's early and so much is unknown about these players and team, I think we'll knock one out and maybe do a couple more than I had planned. 

 

Legend: Minutes/PER/True Shooting/Box Plus Minus/ Offensive Rating/ Defensive Rating

	Min	PER	TS%	BPM	ORtg	DRtg
Johnson	32	33.5	0.759	11.5	135.8	98.7
Pinedo	8	25.6	0.702	-2.7	175.3	105.1
Small	67	25.1	0.716	5.8	129.1	99.1
Felton	63	24.9	0.57	6.6	129.6	88.9
LaCount	39	22.2	0.672	2.5	129.5	103.3
Diboundje	34	9.7	0.553	-6	112.6	103.4
Ausar	23	8	0.438	-7.7	102.9	97.2
Sunderland	8	7.8		-2	0	77.7
Walker	39	4.2	0.391	-7.9	78.7	96.6
Bayela	46	1.2	0.214	-9	65.8	95.2
Kasanganay	6	-0.8	0	-9.1	72.2	108.9
Debaut	22	-2.4	0.253	-16.4	42	95
Tabbs	11	-22.9	0.167	-36.4	29.9	108

 

 

Obviously, it's a small sample size, but there is still knowledge that can be gleaned IMO.  It's pretty clear the handful of players that have driven the success so far and why ECU is 2-0 both in the eye test and by the stats.  It's been Johnson, Small, Felton, and LaCount. Of the 3, only Felton has under a .670 True Shooting, meaning he is doing other things on the court to drive his value to this point like getting steals and blocks mainly. 

 

Considering how low Felton's defensive stats were last year, averaging 3 steals and 1 block isn't likely as sustainable. (He had 10 seals and 2 blocks in 400+ minutes last year. He has 6 and 2 in 63 minutes this season) The kind of shooting and efficiency the other 3 have had to this point is unsustainable in the long run as well unless you are dunking everything or in the best three-point shooters in the nation.

There is the issue that all of these guys are likely to regress big time in what has driven the value of the first two wins. ECU is certainly going to need some other scorers to step up and shoot reasonable percentages over time when those drop or the defense will need to pick up. It's an unsustainable formula so far. ECU is also 33rd in threes made a game and 85th in percentage, and 15th out of 363 in Ken Pom's luck rating after 2 games.

Bryant beat a team D3 team by 108 points last week so there are lots of skewed craziness right now. Removing the non-D1 trash so we get a truer picture ECU's offense is 85th in the nation through 2 games. The Defense is 117th. I think there is little question the offense is going to come down a lot, but the defensive number seems attainable if Asur starts playing more. He was what drove the defense last game and ECU was +15 on the court.  So far from what I've seen and the numbers bear out.

This seems like the best 5 ECU that can put on the court based on early returns.

C Ausar

F Johnson

F Felton

G LaCount

G Small

 There has been a significant drop-off after that, but Diboundje I think is 6th. That's the 6 that seem to need the time and everyone else could fight for that 7th position where no one has distinguished themselves at this point.

The Pace has been pretty slow at #201, so far so if this keeps up there is no need to play 10 or 12 guys in the long run. Tennessee played slow as well last year too, so this seems like the range we are looking at. It was slower than ECU played even with much tighter rotations last season.  If only 4 or 5 players are playing well which is the case so far, they got to likely play a lot to have success when they play the better teams on the schedule. It's something to watch but these are the 5-6 guys I would expect to continue to be the stand-out players on the team.