Reverse Scout

 

If you are curious about what an outsider's objective take on ECU's team so far is, I thought this was a solid post from an Indiana State fan breaking down the team.....

"East Carolina, the good:

• They shoot a LOT of threes. They're 10th in the nation in 3PA/FGA, which even makes Schertz blush. For reference, we're 31st in this stat. 39.4% of ECU's points come from the three-point line.
• They attack the offensive glass. They're 44th in Off. Reb %. We are middle of the pack in terms of limiting offensive rebounds to our opponents, so this is one to keep an eye on.
• They do a great job getting to the free throw line. They're 60th in FTA/FGA, and they shoot them at a 72% clip. We play pretty aggressively on defense and can be prone to giving up points at the FT line. 22.5% of ECU's points come from the free throw line.
• They share the ball very well, with a 56.6 A/FGM rate.

East Carolina, the bad:

• They're pretty turnover prone - 19.7 TO% (206th overall). We're 65th in forcing turnovers at 26.4%, so I would look for us to remain aggressive defensively. The don't give up a lot of steals, which means their turnovers are generally unforced.
• The get their shot blocked...ALL THE TIME (14.8 Block%; 323rd overall). We're not all that great at blocking shots, but this is still an opportunity for us.
• Despite how many threes they shoot, they don't defend them well at all. They're giving up a 3PT% of 38.8% (298th) and we're shooting it at a 38.2% clip (64th).
• They're very foul-prone, at a 37.0 FTA/FGA.

All of the above are unadjusted stats based on level of competition. When adjusted for the strength of the opponent, they are poor offensively (251st in Adj. Offensive Efficiency) and below-average on defense (191st in Adj. Defensive Efficiency). We're sitting at 123rd for offense and 129th for defense....pretty balanced.

Neutral site games are always a bit of a wildcard, but similar to my early thoughts on NDSU...I think this is a game we win by high single-digits. I'm going to go with 78-70 Sycamores.

Mercer (#170 in KenPom), Presbyterian (#291), and Hampton (#339). So…they really haven’t beaten anybody.

To be fair though, if I’m an ECU fan I’d say the same about us." ...BookerZ

He provided some excellent information. The only thing I would quibble with him a little on is the three point defense. He actually has it backwards. and ECU's three point defense has been excellent. They have studied in the NBA and found you can't really defend percentage but you can the volume. Where three point defense matters really, and good three point defense happens is in limiting the volume other teams take on you.

 

Good three point defensive teams limit how many the other teams shoot and deter them from shooting. How many go in from game to game involves a lot of variances. I think if you are limiting them very well the ones they take are probably the higher percentage ones they have a lot of time on too. Similar to how a poor three point shooter like Derrek Wiley from years ago could shoot 40% on low volume when teams dared him to shoot the few he'd take. He picked is spots and wasn't taking difficult well-guarded ones. 

If a team is taking a shot that means they probably have a pretty good look.  ECU has only allowed the opponents 16 a game which is excellent, 22nd in the country on limiting volume. Sure they are shooting one of the highest percentages because they are only taking good shots they can get off.

I'm very encouraged by some of the fundamental things we are seeing in the offense he points out on three point volume. It's a very modern offense taking as many three's as 2's, more actually. Also very few mid range (only 20 mid range shots in 3 games) and not allowing opponents to shoot three's. These are things you want to see IMO.