I did the research and preview for Mercer a few weeks ago ( link ) , and I expected ECU to lose that game. I am pleasantly surprised with the results. Mercer is a team that was one of the most experienced in the nation (31st Torvik) with its returners and 4 experienced transfers coming in. ECU with so many new players and a rookie coach in game one, it didn't seem like a favorable match-up.
Two of the biggest reasons I expect them to win comfortably were out with injury. Glisson was their best-returning player at 6-7, 240, and averaged 10.0ppg, 4.3rpg, 17.4 PER last season. They were also without a 6-10, 280 lb center that averaged 5.7ppg, 3.0rpg with a 19.6 PER. I expected both to have a big night.. I didn't expect as much from their Nebraska transfer (4.3ppg, 2.5rpg), but he was also someone I thought could start. That's three senior projected starters out.
The post was a match-up that I believed Mercer would exploit with those players Instead they were forced to start their own 7-2 freshman and transfer from USF. Both still had big nights. McCreary had 18 points on 8-13 shooting, and the freshman had 9 on 4-8. They only played 46 minutes combined in the post Mercer was forced to go smaller the other 34 minutes. If they had a Glisson or the other 6-10, 280 center available, I believe they would have continued to bludgeon the ECU defense in those minutes and likely won comfortably.
There were some good things to take away from ECU's win. Even when presented with a huge team I still liked that they didn't try to play Mercer's game and went small. That was the most pleasant surprise, the ability to adapt. That's exciting for the longterm. It was also nice to see a young team that didn't fold down 16 points. They have some fight in them. If you can win a comeback like that the guys buy in and will fight harder when you are down, at least for a while.
The two standouts of the night were Brandon Johnson and Javon Small. In my hypothetical ECU team draft Johnson was my first pick, for the best player on the team and the only player I predicted to be efficient this year ( link ). Johnson's not going to have games as good as this one all the time, but i expect he will continue to be the consistent standout on this team. Especially if he is going to play a lot of center where he can be more skilled offensively and athletic. The question is always how well he will hold up on defense. Last year he was unplayable in AAC play the last month. It wasn't a great sign allowing 27 points on 12-21 in 46 minutes to their 3rd and 4th string bigs last night, including a freshman. He still has to play for the offense on this team.
Small I'm going to need a lot more evidence to believe he has improved that much. Unlike some, that jump to conclusions like the SMU guard after one great game vs a team that was D2 last year. It's not a normal trend line to go from a 4 PER as Small was to star. I'll need more evidence to believe that. It also needs to be said that defense has never been Mercer's strength. They were 297th last year in defense. This is one of the games ECU should have expected to score at home.
I still believe this team will struggle to score this year. I don't think you can expect the kind of volume of 3's they had (10 made) at even 34.5% . I expect worse shooting and winning close at home with some three-point overachieving and 20+ point explosions Small and Johnson had isn't a likely sustainable formula. To have a chance to be decent the defense has to be a lot better in my opinion. If ECU is going to go small as we did the defense is the sacrifice that is going to be made. I'm someone that obviously likes going small but you need some great offensive weapons and shooting for it to work.
For this team to be good I really thought defense needed to be great. Ausar at 6-9, 240 seemed key to that as an unknown, possible difference maker there. What is clear after playing 2 minutes last night vs a team that big is he's likely to be a nonfactor and that's disappointing. The easiest path I could see to being good went through him beasting on defense and the boards and that seems to be off the table for now.
I appreciate those that have checked out the blog. I'll be doing previews and post-game thoughts as long as people remain interested. Hopefully, I'll keep being surprised by the on court results. I'll have the Presbyterian preview up in the next day or so.
