This is one of those debates that I don't think there is much convincing if you are on one side or the other. You can show the stats but people have the way they feel and will why to tell you why it's manipulated this way, or that way. Many times when it's the same rules and situations that apply to any team. For example, every team has cupcakes they run the score up on, and every team lays eggs once and a while. That's what averages are for.
The great Lincoln Riley once had a game his offense only scored 3 points and the team lost 56-3 to the same Houston program. That's with Dominique Davis, Lance Lewis, Justin Hardy, and some pretty potent offensive weapons that season. He had multiple other the offense and scored 10 or fewer. Those types of games happen even to the best, and few people would say he sucked as an offensive coach at ECU. At least no objective outsider. Also forgotten was in his tenure and many of those early years especially were high turnovers putting the defense in bad situations. Dead last in fact in 2011.
It's no secret fans have been wanting to retire Kirkpatrick nearly since he got back here. I really have no dog in the fight other than the objective stats. These stats are only for FBS vs FBS teams. We'll remove the FCS games talking point as an excuse and get a more accurate picture of what this offense looks like in comparison to all teams and there is no bu..bu..but Campbell.
There are 131 teams, ECU 69th SOS overall, almost exactly average. This is much better competition than Lincoln Riley was blowing up all the records in the 103 SOS year .
Giveaways per Game: 97th Percentile
Elite Ball Protection and Penalty Avoidance: Right away two of the biggest categories coaches are judged on are how much their teams turn it over and how many dumb penalties they make. Those are two aspects that usually decide games, and annoy fans the most.
It's also something that is never currently mentioned because when you are good at it, I guess people expect it. That's not often been the case at ECU. This coaching staff deserves credit for having an elite team in protecting the ball and not making dumb penalties. That's vastly undervalued and the defense gets a boost by not being put in bad situations from this offense.
Time of Possession percentage: 83rd Percentile
The offense also controls the time of possessions ranking 36th in the nation and keeping the other teams defense on the field. This also aids the defense.
3rd Down Conversion Percentage: 84th Percentile
That's with a high number of 3rd downs as well.
Yards Per Play : 85th Percentile
What is often talked about is how ECU doesn't score as many points as Yards it produces. What is ignored is the plays. ECU Puts up those Yards in fewer plays than most teams.
Points Per Play: 65th Percentile
ECU's Offense is still 47th in Points Per Play they use, well above average. The only thing that makes it look worse is they put up more excess yards than they need to score at an above-average rate. Per the actual play their points per play still 47th.
ECU's offense is below average scoring at 78th in the redzone sure, but why is that? Some have suggested an early season injury to Ahlers contributed. That's a point that you want to protect his health and not have to use QB sneaks.
Another obvious answer is the 115th FG kicking percentage and that's not on the Kirkpatrick, Ahlers, or the team offense. It's also dictated going for it some on 4th downs when you wouldn't have in such small samples, which is probably why that number is likely lower as well that the FG kicking was so bad.
Just based on the numbers last year with the same kicker, if there were probably around 2.4ppg from the FG and 5 miss points extra a game kicking ECU can't count on that they could last season. That would have rank the scoring offense about 35th in raw Points Per Game.
Conclusion
This is a well-above-average offense. It's not an offense that dinks and dunks, yet it still protects the ball in the 97th percentile. It scores well above average for the number of plays (65th Percentile). Yards per play are 85th percentile, time of possession % is 83th percentile, and they don't do dumb things to get penalized rating 97th percentile. In the clutch, they are 84th percentile on 3rd down conversions as well.
The only knock is the red zone scoring (78th) and when you are getting the 115th FG kicking, some of that's not really your fault any more than the defense giving up points some try to blame Ahlers or the offense for in the record. This offense and style actually protect the defense, in fact better than anyone could ask for with the lack of turnovers. They also hold the ball more than almost anyone and keep the defense off the field. That's just the tangible numbers. I'm sure the offense sucks crowd will point to certain games, but you literally could do that for any offense, even good ones like Riley oversaw. Every team has those games. Every team has games they put up big stats in too.
Scoring 3 on the road at a top 15 team with a freshman qb is not the same as scoring 3 at home against a mediocre team with a fifth year starting qb and 2 NFL wrs and a rb. Not that they will start in the NFL or even make 53-mans, but besides the point.
ReplyDeleteI think you're being duped a little bit by being able to throw 40 yard jump balls to big NFL wrs that can jump over the dbs covering them.
We did do a good job not turning it over, but is that sustainable moving forward with a new QB and probably RB1? Isn't that likely going to take a large step back and make scoring even harder?
When you look at the talent on the offense they should've been one of the best in the country. 2 top 50 wrs. A probably top 10 rb. A great TE in Jones, and Calhoun is no slouch either. O-Line was solid. RBs behind KM were as good as you can hope for in a backup. Ahlers has a limited skill set.
Dom Davis was a Senior QB that year the year they lost 56-3, and Justin Hardy led the team in catches, and Lance Lewis was 2nd. ECU had the offensive talent to score more than 3 points.
DeleteHouston's Defense was 62nd that year in total offense and 43rd in scoring when you take out the FCS teams nationally. It wasn't their defense that was so good when you say top 15 team. That was their #1 offense that drove it. Lincoln Riley still couldn't muster but 3 points on an average defense like that was the point. It happens even to the best, and multiple times his potent ECU offenses were held under 10 when I looked back. I thought he was great BTW, and I love the Air Raid. I thought what Nichols got out of the team he coached was maybe even more impressive.
I think ECU's offense was one of the best in the country this year. It was top third in some important markers. I think the ire is pointed at the wrong person and having one of the worst kicking game impacts how they went about it in the redzone. If it was at the same level as the previous year, ECU's probably top 35 in scoring when I figured it up.
Also I think Kirkpatrick probably is working within some constraints from Houston as a coach who seems to be more conservative than Ruff was at least in style. DK is a guy that has been in the Air Raid, and even when he was a head coach and OC had bigger offenses. If you get rid of him does it really even change the style ECU plays if the coach dictates the time of possession, running etc. I also think DK's recruiting is underrated from all the years he has been here and was a recruiting coordinator too. You lose that as well which no one talks about.
You are right re: Dominique Davis, I glanced at the schedule and saw USCe not in Greenville and was thinking that was the game we played in Columbia Carden's first year.
ReplyDeleteI have never been a staunch opponent of DK, and think a lot of execution has been lacking at the QB position both physically and mentally. However, certain things this year such as repeatedly trying to run KM up the middle on 3rd and 4th and short or goal is mind numbing. I wouldn't pack it in if DK returns next year, but it's hard to see how we are going to improve with the talent we are losing in skill positions.