I noticed on the conference board that a Houston fan had 1 ECU player in his Top 50 Conference players (Tabbs 29th) and ECU fans seemed confused by this. I decided to run my own exercise just to see just how many players I would draft for next year before I would take any ECU player. Trying to figure out who was the most desirable prospect on ECU was a task in itself. How do you account for the injury risk or that Tabbs couldn't stay in front of anyone and posted a 115.8 defensive rating even before another knee injury that didn't go as planned.
I can't imagine Tabbs game has grown much after missing most of the last 20 months, or no minutes restriction. When he last played he had a 13.2 PER on a 157 NET team that went 2-10 with him on the court and had a -18.2 net rating. All his athletic indicator stats like steals, rebounds, etc were down even before the last surgery. I wouldn't even mention that if so many people didn't put unfair "savior" type expectations on him. I think getting on the court at all is a win.
It became at what point would it even be worth drafting him on any perceived upside vs risk over healthy proven players with similar efficiency. Bayela might be the 2nd most proven player and he is coming off missing last season with an ACL too and only averaged 10.5ppg and shot .309% from three when he last played in JUCO as well.
ECU signed 5 freshmen while the other 10 schools signed 13 collectively per 247. I've listed the Top 150 ones, it's an old/transfer-heavy conf.
Given the health issues, I found I'd have a hard time drafting any of ECU's players in the Top 50. 65ish is where I'd actually feel good about drafting Tabbs or Baylea. Those others you just don't have to worry about them kicking over a year of rust off, risk, or availability. When they were on the court last they weren't posting a 115.8 Defensive Ratings and were just about as efficient/productive on offense vs a high level.
B. Johnson was played off the court in AAC play and was down to 9 minutes a game the last month. I think I'd draft him 1st, but he doesn't have the production of any of the other bench guys that are about 65 on the list and they were more highly efficient vs better SOS's. J. Walker only played 115 minutes last year out of the rotation and was beaten out for backup PG by a player transferring to Western Carolina. When he played 397 the year prior and had a role starting 9 games he had a 6.6 PER, and 106 defensive ratings and was the 54th worst player by Torvik out of 4500+ that season. Diboundje played 35 minutes last year and when he last played real minutes he was 15-73 20% from 3.
LaCount is listed at 5-8, 150. He put up great numbers against someone in HS. No clue how good that competition actually was, but when he played on a serious high-level AAU team in the Circuit he scored 4ppg. A 5-10 lightly recruited 17 year old who is an incoming fr now at N. Arizona was playing over him averaging 10ppg. It wasn't much better this summer averaging 7.2ppg, 2.5apg vs 17 year olds if you are expecting him to be a star from day one. I think teams will hunt LaCount and Tabbs on defense and If the defense is your path to success it's hard to ignore that. I don't think you can have a good defense with both playing a lot. Felton and Small weren't much better on defense either (109.4/111.4 DRtg) but they have more tools in theory.
Any team can upset any other team, especially at home and I'm sure ECU will get a couple of upsets. That said I doubt ECU is favored before the game in one AAC game this season. I've seen some shots taken repeatedly at USF, maybe people should educate themselves on the type of talent they added relative to the rest of the conference. They don't fit great as a team but Bryant, Harris, and Walker are legit. Even their 7 footer isn't bad individually. I can understand why they are picked where they are.
Here are Torvik's projections, (last year he had ECU 172nd in the preseason and it finished 183 in NET)
ECU is projected worse on KenPom, but it's behind a paywall so I won't list it. Let's just say get 2 upsets and maybe they beat Tulsa at home. I see 3 wins range like Torvik/ Kenpom.
OOC
Coming off the 342nd-ranked OOC by Ken Pom last year this is likely another 300+ OOC. It will be the 7th straight 300+ ranked OOC in a row. The only thing separating it from 10 straight was a #287 OOC seven years ago. You have to go back 12 years to find one not ranked #232+, with the vast majority 320+.
Greenville is in one of the most saturated areas of D1 schools in the country. With nearly 250 schools with smaller basketball budgets and attendance, you have to try to make schedules that bad and wins like this fool no one who understands basic SOS.
Torvik/KenPom have ECU going very similarly.
Even vs a 300+OOC, I think at least 10 of the OOC opponents will have the best player on the court. There are obvious examples of healthy proven older players they return or transfers they added, overall with more team experience. For that reason, almost all of these teams are a threat to win even with home court. ECU will mostly be depending on the home court and coaching to win these games. When your depth and experience are mostly freshmen and players like Small, Felton, and Debaut with a subpar resume at ECU, and the coach is getting on-the-job training, 7-6 could be generous.
10-21 #245 NET seems like the consensus from most projections.
Starters
Teams that aren't good search for lineups, and I expect everyone's going to get a chance if/when it's not working. Johnson seems like the only one that will be mildly efficient.
