Tulsa is currently 5-13 (1-6) and ranked #275, while ECU sits at 10-10 (1-6) and ranked #218 in NET. To say this is an important game at home is an understatement. A loss on home court in this game has the potential to land this season in the range of some of the worst teams in ECU's unimpressive history. It could be the second in a combination of season killers with SC State.
The two coaches and 1st-year rosters I think you must look to, to understand futility are Stokes and Dooley's 2nd tenure. Their teams would go on to have two of the three worst finishes in ECU history with a 300 RPI, and 276 RPI (258 NET). ECU is currently #239th in RPI under the same formula which remains relevant for comparison to the last 40+ years it has existed. Tulsa is #312 so it's the type of loss at home that would cripple this season historically by any measure.
2005-06 #300 RPI
Corey Rouse returned (10.7ppg, 10.2rpg 17.4 PER the year prior). Stokes had an ACC transfer, and a former top 65 former recruit in Jermey Ingram as well that would become eligible. Tom Hammonds (8.0ppg) was a Freshman All-Conference the previous season and back.. Role players like McNeil and Castro who averaged about 5 assists and 5 rebounds a game.
Stokes did what he could with the tools at hand of the day to try to get older and better and brought in guys who were all a year or 2 out of high school, JUCO's like Beale that averaged 22.2ppg 10.4rpg on 63% FG and 78% FT on a 53-13 JUCO team, and Captain, 16.3ppg 5.6apg and shot 39.7% from three on a 31-3 team at a time JUCO was stronger. He signed Sam Hinnant who was older having prepped at a time when it wasn't as usual. He was one of the best 5th-year players.
From his Hinnant's bio
"Ranked among the nations top 100 fifth-year players by Hoop Scoop ...averaged 11 points and five rebounds per game ... Team finished the season with a 27-2 record and ranked third nationally ... ... Prior to enrolling at Fork Union, ... Helped team to the state 4A championship as a junior and earned all-regional honors . ... Averaged 22 points per game"
The JUCO's ended up being disappointing but I respected Stokes effort trying to bring in as proven help as he could. Beale was one of the highest scoring and rebounding JUCO's in the nation, and there were no transfer free or getting waivers at the time. You take a JUCO or prep freshman if you wanted older players.
2018-19 #276 RPI(258 NET)
The myth is that Lebo left the Dooley a terrible situation, in reality he left Jayden Gardner which everyone forgets to mention when trying to autopsy the Dooley tenure. Gardner would be one of the best AAC players and had one of the best seasons any ECU player has ever had that year (16.3ppg 8.5rpg 23 PER).
Also forgotten is Lebo left Seth LeDay, a transfer from a top 25 ACC team who had averaged 18 and 8 at a top 25 JUCO. Even though Dooley wouldn't start him or play him 25 minutes he also like Gardner had one of top 10 statistical seasons in the AAC that year per possession. It is one of the best individual seasons of the last 20 years at ECU as well.
Dooley didn't start Fleming for the first 7 games of the year, instead, he started a freshman who didn't start on his prep team. Fleming was a 5th year senior that had averaged 12.4ppg 4.8apg the previous year and 9.5ppg on a 28-6 Hawaii team that won an NCAA tourney game vs Cal. Then there was the returning AAC ROY in S. Williams who averaged 12.4ppg. There were real players left behind by Lebo. Transferring had also evolved by this point where 70% were getting waivers to play without sitting, 100's were automatically eligible. Dooley even had several off of his FGCU teams transfer that offseason.
2018-19 is the worst coaching job I had ever seen at ECU given what was left and the results both in the offseason and during the season. Starting walk on's and Spas over a player like LeDay contributed. It was an experienced team that many first year coaches could have added a player or 2 and certainly far exceeded the results. Instead it's the 3rd worst season in ECU history even with a future All ACC player left on the doorstep playing at that level from day one. Joining this conversation would not be a good development for any 1st year coach.
While the coaching and development seem better this season than either, the off season appears to be the worst given what was available with the portal. Stokes had no chance to bring in immediate help and while Dooley had access potentially to hundreds of immediatly eligible transfer players. It's still nothing at the level it was this season with a 100 % free transfer portal. This is a big game to stay out of this conversation.
